Social distancing results continue to be sensationalized because the so-called experts refuse to admit they were wrong

[bodyforlife]

It doesn't take a rocket scientist or a person with a PHD to understand when a model is flawed. This is the standard MO for the government and has been for quite some time (I think most of us remember how drastically they were off on Ebola).

In the case of the Corona Virus and the key model used by the government (University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation), social distancing was already baked into the model. In a space of just six days starting April 2, two revisions (on April 5 and 8) have utterly discredited the model. In the last 6 days, the projections on deaths have gone from 93,531 to 81,766 to 60,145. The upper range has gone from 178k to 136k to 126k. Obviously the "exponential" people that predicted 14 million deaths should be wearing tin foil hats, and the original estimates of 1.2 -2.2 million were clearly wildly exaggerated. The model was also drastically off in the prediction of hospital beds needed in New York.

With that said, the question Alex Berenson (ex-NYT reporter) reasonably asks is... if the model is significantly inaccurate in its application to current conditions that are more easily knowable, how much confidence should we have in its projections for a week from now, or a month from now?

I think it's a fair question.

Clearly social distancing will have an impact on any infectious disease (that's more than apparent). But what is clearly not the case here is that it in any way, shape, or form had the impact these 'experts', media spinsters, and partisan people are claiming. And to continue to claim such just shows ignorance.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-pandemic-projection-models-proving-unreliable/

 

[rolltide]

absolutely correct. and it was trivialized yesterday by the architect of US models, the IHME, who compared their models to a weather forecast. First off I don't ever remember the local weather guy telling me it was going to be 97 degrees when the high was 26 but when 17M Americans are filing for unemployment because of these faulty fucking models you better come up with a better narrative

or, how about this? an apology. how about "we were completely fucking wrong" and everyone that doesn't rely on CNN/ABC/NBC/NYT knew this from the very first day of our 2.2M dead American projection. Nobody should ever forget their high-end projections, WITH social distancing, started at 2.2M and then were revised to 200k and now talking maybe 60k

@IHME_UW
New data from several states indicates a decline in the overall deaths we predict for the US. It’s important to note that our forecasts range from 126,703 to 31,221 deaths. As data comes in, our estimates will change, much like weather forecasts adjust. http://ms.spr.ly/6014TeCpg

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[rolltide]

I explained how govts create these collateral damage cost projections earlier today (see below) and unless there's some crazy 2nd wave that comes through killing 30-somethings, like H1N1 did, then China imploded our economy with the help of a complicit US Govt

If 50 years of climate and health models have taught us anything it's that they're bullshit. Go back and check out the H1N1 early models which were >1M dead Americans.... we learned nothing from 2009 and these cvnt academics (Michael Satan Mann for example) are here to cause mass panic so they can fund their next bullshit research

every country tracks this and has a team of economists that run the numbers. but unfortunately these numbers run off of the suggested 2.2M dead Americans (at least half <50) and not the new proposed number of 61k, which will then fall to 40k and perhaps 30k with very few <50YO

it's the old adage of data....garbage in = garbage out.

So, from a economics perspective this has been a disaster when you take into account stimulus, unemployment insurance payouts, loss of productivity, businesses going under, less tax money collected, etc etc.

the gov't will never tell us what the real $/death number is but that is the number they use, not deaths vs jobs. It's an actual dollar amount lost based on that person's productivity. Obviously as the vast majority of deaths are people either out of the work force or nearly out of the work force it makes the true loss of productivity an astronomical number because we've taken the most productive out of the work force

for example the cost of a suicide is well over $1M per death because they are typically younger and with many years of productivity remaining. But the loss of an 86YO is miniscule in comparison. If this virus was more deadly to the <50 crowd then it matches the measures taken but it clearly is not.

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[TheComputerGroup]

When they came out with that crazy number of 1.5 million to 2 million deaths if we didn't distance was insane.......even the 100k to 250k was outrageous if we do distance. I thought a number of 50k to 75k was appropriate, but we shall see. I mean, they're counting basically any health issue any death as a Corona virus death, a good way to get the tally up.

 

[tanner12oz]

And folks are still lapping up the Kool aid

 

[bodyforlife]

And folks are still lapping up the Kool aid

That's evident by the useful idiots on this site.

 

[rolltide]

And folks are still lapping up the Kool aid

wait until the 30% effective vaccine is available for $75/dose. They'll be lined up like X-Files on half-price handjob day at the "massage" joint

 

[PatsFan1283]

Trump seemed to throw some cold water on opening up sooner than later, we'll see what happens.

If we opened up and the virus spreads again then it is like the previous lockdown was worthless.

 

[Willie99]

Their catastrophic numbers had social distancing and shut downs built in, otherwise they told us it would be far worse

Now they're going to claim they saved us

 

[mango]

Dumb hoaxers got everything wrong about the Coronavirus and are now trying to change the subject to how models aren't pinpoint accurate. Well it's more accurate than what you morons predicted.

 

[TheFalls]

I predict I’ll sue or shoot someone before this is over.

These model makers and health pros really fkd up here.

No one cares if you got it and didn’t die.
I had a flu strain from a shitty cruise 2 years ago for 3 weeks.
I didn’t cry about how bad it was.

Bottom line is don’t be a scared bitch...grab your balls. Be a man. And live your life.

 

[niltes]

50 years of climate and health models have taught us that they are bullshit. WOW!
good to know.

 

[SheriffJoe]

Dumb hoaxers got everything wrong about the Coronavirus and are now trying to change the subject to how models aren't pinpoint accurate. Well it's more accurate than what you morons predicted.

Actually, what we predicted turned out accurate.

If 80k dead is the baseline for a bad flu season, this is basically a multi-trillion dollar Big Government clusterfuck.

Practicing good hygiene, sealing the borders from China and later from Europe, reasonable social distancing guidelines, isolating high-risk patients etc., are all common sense prudent measures.

From the very beginning, you and the other trolls loved this government "solution", so thank you for clearly demonstrating what NOT to do...mango da mush.

 

[mango]

Actually, what we predicted turned out accurate.

If 80k dead is the baseline for a bad flu season, this is basically a multi-trillion dollar Big Government clusterfuck.

Practicing good hygiene, sealing the borders from China and later from Europe, reasonable social distancing guidelines, isolating high-risk patients etc., are all common sense prudent measures.

From the very beginning, you and the other trolls loved this government "solution", so thank you for clearly demonstrating what NOT to do...mango da mush.

Nice lie. In truth, you hoaxers were predicting 1,000-20,000 deaths (less than the common flu). Now you've moved the goal-posts once again to fit your revisionist history.

Proof: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1155461&p=13089306&viewfull=1#post13089306

Another lie. You clowns have been crying and whining about the stay home orders all along but now you claim you were for it?

Liars gonna lie, I guess.

azzkick(&^

 

[StevieRay]

Dumb hoaxers got everything wrong about the Coronavirus and are now trying to change the subject to how models aren't pinpoint accurate. Well it's more accurate than what you morons predicted.

Go away Russian troll

 

[X-Files]

Trump was saying last month the US death toll could be as low as 20K.

 

[X-Files]

"Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada's chief public health officer, said that the models aren't crystal balls —

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/coronavirus-covid19-april10-canada-world-1.5529020

 

[X-Files]

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1156701

 

[X-Files]

Deaths: with economic shutdown etc 4K...without 300K or more?

The scenarios indicate that, depending on the containment efforts, between 4,000 and 300,000 people in Canada could die from COVID-19 over the course of the pandemic. Though, the current reality of the virus has Canada closer to the lower end of that spectrum and the two more developed scenarios from Health Canada under the current strong measures show that the range is likely somewhere between 11,000 and 22,000 Canadian deaths.
If that grows further to 10 per cent of the population, approximately 44,000 people in Canada could die.
With no control efforts in place, up to 80 per cent of Canadians could contract the virus. That scenario could result in more than 300,000 deaths, which is approximately equivalent to the total number of deaths from all causes in Canada each year.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coron...t-phase-of-covid-19-pm-trudeau-says-1.4891604

 

[devocr]

Deaths: with economic shutdown etc 4K...without 300K or more?


[/FONT][/I][/FONT][/COLOR]https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coron...t-phase-of-covid-19-pm-trudeau-says-1.4891604

Stop spamming!!!